US dollar surpasses 102.00, reaching the 7-month bottom. The dollar continues to be heavily under pressure. Breaking below the 102.00 benchmark for the first time since early February.
US dollar and FOMC Impact
The indicator last experienced a 6-session run of declines in the middle of October 2021.
The Fed’s dovish move on Wednesday, coupled with Chief Powell’s similarly pessimistic remarks at his press conference. Gave the dollar’s downward trend more momentum, and caused the index to drop to new multi-week lows.
The marked decline in the index is currently being driven by the absence of movement in US yields across the curve. Weekly Initial Claims, New Home Sales. And the Chicago Fed National Activity Index will typically take center stage in the US data arena.
US dollar needs a lot of scrutinies
As markets continue to process the results of the most recent Fed meeting. The index stays significantly vulnerable and drops back to multi-week lows in the sub-102.00 region. Meanwhile, declining banking worries keep the risk complex strong and maintain the current squeezed price action for USD.
The dollar should currently suffer from conjecture about the Fed switching policy in the near future. Despite the fact that the US economy is still robust. Inflation is still high, and Fed speakers have an aggressive tone.
Important problems pushed to the side
Growing certainty that the US economy will experience a gentle landing. The persistent case in favor of the Fed’s continued tightening. Near 5.5% terminal rates? Fed’s reversal. Political effervescence in relation to China and Russia. US-China economic dispute.
Relevant USD Index values
The indicator is currently declining by 0.44% at 102.07. And a break of 101.93 would allow access to 100.82 (the year 2023 bottom on Feb 2). Eventually 100.00. (psychological mark). The following support, however, appears at 105.88 (2023 high March 8), followed by 106.60 (200-day SMA), Then, finally 107.19. (weekly top Nov 30, 2022) zone.
USD (DXY) daily Pivots
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| Classic | 100.76 | 101.42 | 101.94 | 102.60 | 103.12 | 103.78 | 104.30 |
| Fibonacci | 101.42 | 101.87 | 102.15 | 102.60 | 103.05 | 103.33 | 103.78 |
| Camarilla | 102.12 | 102.23 | 102.33 | 102.60 | 102.55 | 102.66 | 102.77 |
| Woodie’s | 100.68 | 101.38 | 101.86 | 102.56 | 103.04 | 103.74 | 104.22 |
| DeMark’s | – | – | 101.68 | 102.47 | 102.86 | – | – |
Synopsis for the current US dollar scenario
Market attention was nevertheless drawn to the Fed’s less hawkish change in its policy statement. Policymakers changed the phrasing regarding rate rises. From being “ongoing increases” to “expecting” some more firming as necessary. On the Fed, the yield on the 2-year Treasury note and the US dollar declined.
