The US dollar index falls after durable goods data. on a month-to-month basis, US durable goods statistics for Jan came in -4.5 percent less than projected—twice in 3 months.  The figure was weighed down by a 13.3 percent decrease in transportation equipment orders. Specifically orders for nondefense aircraft and parts (-54.6 percent).

The dollar index is disappointed by the data

Durable goods excluding transportation were percent. Far exceeding what analysts were expecting. Capital goods orders tumbled by 1.6%, while orders for machinery, computer, and electronic parts rose by 1.6percent and 0.5 percent respectively.

Capital goods orders tumbled by 1.6%, while orders for machinery, computer, and electronic parts rose by 1.6percent and 0.5 percent respectively.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft increased by 0.8 percent in Jan, reversing a 0.3 percentage decline in Dec.

The dollar index is moving forward with the US data

The US economy has grown from strength to strength in February, defying expectations at every turn. The PCE data released on Friday raised concerns that inflationary pressures may be more persistent than market participants had hoped.

All eyes are on US Fed on March 22 event

The Fed Funds’ full rate aspirations for 2023 increased from 4.8 percent to 5.4 percent in Feb. With Federal Reserve policymakers asserting the need for additional hikes in the latest remarks.

Observing how the latest batch of statistics affects the Fed dot plots will be intriguing, which will be released at the Fed’s next summit on March 22.

What does the durable good look like?

Core Orders rebounded, another false positive from the Durables headline.

Nondefense aircraft orders fell 55 percent in Jan after surging 106 percent the previous month.

Markets anticipate upcoming data releases.

We may not have NFP jobs data this week, however, we do have ISM data, that might be important. The favorable statistics were released in Jan, which many attributed to the holiday season and improved weather.

The favorable statistics were released in Jan, which many attributed to the holiday season and enhanced weather. Provided that the US is primarily a provider economy, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI would be extremely crucial.

The US is primarily a provider economy, so the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be extremely critical.  A better-than-expected performance here could set the tone and fuel hopes that March statistics will continue to be strong.

MARKET RESPONSE

After the release of the statistics, the dollar index fell from 105.10 to 104.95, with adequate support on the I-hour graph at 104.88.

Since its YTD low of around 100.80 on Feb 2, the dollar index has been on a break. The index is mixed in the grand scheme of things because we experienced such a bullish weekly and daily candle close this past Friday.

In the grand scheme of things, the index is varied because we had such a bullish weekly and daily candle finish this past Friday.

Furthermore, the fact that we have just completed our fourth week of gains (which we hadn’t seen since Oct. 2022) leads us to believe that we could be on the verge of a pullback for the remainder of this week.

Dollar index Technical Analysis