BTC: Considering the possibility of one last bearish market recovery in 2022 in the weekly bitcoin projection for next week.

Market Analytics and Technical Considerations

Key Points

A trend line and the ongoing consolidation of the bitcoin price near $16,500.

Bullish convergence should occur when accompanied with upbeat on-chain data, according to investors.

On the flip of the $15,550 support level, the bullish argument will be proven false.

From a high-time frame viewpoint, the price of bitcoin is well-positioned to start another bear market rally. This trend increases the likelihood that 2022 will end well when coupled with the upbeat forecast revealed in on-chain data.

Price of bitcoin and prospective bets

On the three-day charting for the price of bitcoin, a falling wedge formation is visible that is connected by trend lines to lower two highs and lower three low points. As long as BTC stays near $16,500, the third retest of the low trend line is still a possibility.

As was indicated in an earlier piece, over the past five months, the price of Bitcoin has generated lower lows while the well-known trend indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) has established larger lows. This deviation from the norm, or “interconnection,” signals the beginning of bullish impetus and a turnaround in the market.

Investors should therefore anticipate a 17% increase in the price of bitcoin, which will reach the level of $19,011, or the “Point of Control,” in 2022. 

This view might be difficult to accept because investors still are recovering from the Luna, Three Arrows Capital, and FTX crashes. If Bitcoin price were to turn the POC into a support level, though, an even more optimistic scenario might develop.

This move might draw in underused investors, increasing buying pressures. A situation like this might encourage BTC to confront and defeat the falling wedge’s falling trend line. The levels of March 2022 and November 2021 are connected by this trend line.

Therefore, a significant three-day candlestick closure over this barrier will indicate a change in direction and initiate a 54% upward trend to $32,191. The breakaway point at $20,560 is added to the length between the descending wedge’s first swinging high and swing down to determine the goal for this breakout.

Investors in current weak market may find the aforementioned 17% shift unlikely, but if the 54% upswing possibility being, they shouldn’t be caught off guard.

BTC’s on-chain environment following Thanksgiving

The 24-hour active addresses index, which increased to 1.15 million on November 20, backs up this example of a price forecast for bitcoin. In May 2022, this indicator last reached 1.15 million. This on-chain indicator indicates that investors are still actively interacting with the Bitcoin blockchain despite numerous significant collapses in the cryptocurrency market.

The supply distribution indication created by sentiment gives a more complete picture when combined with the active addresses measure, which on its own has no significance. After the catastrophe on November 22, the colloquial “whales” exhibit significant indications of strong accumulation. The cumulative amount of 100 to 10,000 BTC addresses has increased by about 60,000 BTC over the last three days, showing that these investors are unmistakably buying the dip.

It’s noteworthy that the phrase “buy the dip” does not have the same traction on November 22 as it had during in the collapse on November 10. Due to the second plunge on November 22, retail investors were burned, as evidenced by the Social Volume metric’s drop.

Coupling this information with the observation that whales are amassing between 100 and 10,000 BTC, one might conclude that this is a transfer of wealth from weaker clutches to big hands and “smart bet.

In conclusion, the price of Bitcoin appears to be headed for a year-end rise. Investors need to be ready for anything, whether that’s a 17% increase to $19,011 or an explosive advance to $32,191.

The optimistic prognosis will be invalidated, however, if Bitcoin price does not respond to the bullish signals and creates a three-day or weekly candlestick closure just below $15,550 support line. This event will result in a lower low, terrifying investors and setting off a selling spree.

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