VOT Research Desk
Market Analytics and Considerations
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
- After the G20 discussions, the Chinese economy receives support.
- Markets usually overlook the minutes of RBA meetings.
- The pinnacle of the recent strength of the AUD might be in sight.
FUNDAMENTAL Landscape FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
The much-anticipated meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden took place yesterday night as a result of the G20 summit in Bali. Unexpectedly, the discussions were very fruitful and positive, highlighting shared concerns about climate change and food security while expressing disagreement with Russia’s usage nuclear weapons as a danger in Ukraine. Sense of optimism over the Chinese economy has increased, supporting the Australian dollar, along with China’s relaxation of COVID restrictions and help to the real estate sector. Naturally, the majority of commodity prices are currently in the green, reflecting the aforementioned change in China’s confidence.
The AUD is still supported notwithstanding disappointments in early this morning’s Chinese GDP data (see the economic calendar below). Future headlines will be dominated by U.S. PPI and Fed presenters, and should they echo Fed Brainard’s yesterday comments on a mild hike in interest rates the AUD could continue to appreciate against the dollar.
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
If we consider how prices have responded to the prior 25bps rate hike, the RBA meeting minutes have not received much attention. There was nothing in the minutes, but the central bank is still receptive to a range of rate courses despite the lack of current concrete direction.
Technical Viewpoint
With prices solidly above the psychological threshold of 0.6700, the daily AUD/USD price action invalidates the bear flag formation that was forming during the previous week. The 0.6800 resistance mark may line up with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which would limit AUD upward gains, as it is steadily shifting toward up trending.
Moving Averages – Daily
|
Name |
MA5 |
MA10 |
MA20 |
MA50 |
MA100 |
MA200 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6693 |
0.6563 |
0.6474 |
0.6497 |
0.6697 |
0.6950 |
Pivots
|
Name |
S3 |
S2 |
S1 |
Pivot Points |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
|
Classic |
0.6723 |
0.6732 |
0.6747 |
0.6756 |
0.6772 |
0.6780 |
0.6796 |
|
Fibonacci |
0.6732 |
0.6741 |
0.6747 |
0.6756 |
0.6765 |
0.6771 |
0.6780 |
|
Camarilla |
0.6756 |
0.6759 |
0.6761 |
0.6756 |
0.6765 |
0.6767 |
0.6770 |
|
Woodie’s |
0.6727 |
0.6734 |
0.6751 |
0.6758 |
0.6776 |
0.6782 |
0.6800 |
|
DeMark’s |
– |
– |
0.6751 |
0.6758 |
0.6776 |
– |
– |
T-Indicators
|
Name |
Value |
Action |
|
RSI(14) |
66.744 |
Buy |
|
STOCH(9,6) |
68.033 |
Buy |
|
STOCHRSI(14) |
78.435 |
Overbought |
|
MACD(12,26) |
0.002 |
Buy |
|
ADX(14) |
35.247 |
Buy |
|
Williams %R |
-10.179 |
Overbought |
|
CCI(14) |
164.5079 |
Buy |
|
ATR(14) |
0.0016 |
Less Volatility |
|
Highs/Lows(14) |
0.0038 |
Buy |
|
Ultimate Oscillator |
63.151 |
Buy |
|
ROC |
0.910 |
Buy |
|
Bull/Bear Power(13) |
0.0069 |
Buy |
|
Buy: 9 Sell: 0 Neutral: 0 Summary: BUY |
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