Yen: Technical Analysis of the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and AUD/JPY Charts to Monitor

VOT Research Desk
Nov 6

Analytics and Recommendations

following the formation of a Descending Triangle, the USD/JPY outlook is slanted downward

Having broken through a crucial trend line, CHF/JPY may be headed for a trend reversal.

After slipping below a regression channel and generating a buy signal, the AUD/JPY price increases.

Technical Sentiment for USD/JPY: Neutral

Last week, the USD/JPY declined by roughly 0.5% after prices plummeted by 1% on Friday. The cross earlier in the week lost momentum near the psychologically important 150 level. Price support was provided by the 26-day Exponential Moving Average – numerous times during the week. On Wednesday, a bid to break underneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May/October movement faltered intraday. Eventually, that area might return back into sight.

Although the upswing is still present, a Sliding down Triangle layers give the chart a bearish slant. A route lower would open up if prices broke through the 26-day EMA, which is closely connected with the triangle’s support and the 23.6% Fib level. If that happened, the calculated move of the pattern places a target near the 100-day Simple Moving Average   Price action may be disrupted by intermediary support from the 38.2% Fib, which supported it throughout September.

In the alternative, a break over triangle resistance would allow USD/JPY to target the psychological threshold of 150. That level is also seen as the Bank of Japan’s immovable boundary for market intervention. Last week, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) had a zigzag trend but managed to stay above its median. Despite the fact that there is room for both sides to participate in conflicts, the route of least resistance tends to be negative overall.

Daily Chart

Technical Perspective for CHF/JPY: Bearish

In a bold move that burst through the 50-day SMA, CHF/JPY broke below a sustaining trendline from May. The RSI crossed below the 70 overbought mark on the weekly timescale, confirming the abrupt reversal in momentum. The oscillator’s midway was beneath the daily RSI. After many months of exploring near the 150 level, the breakdown occurs.

Prices subsequently started to decline at the move’s 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from May to September. The 100-day SMA, which buffered activity previously in the year, would be the objective of a break below. Given the trendline break, the near-term prognosis is dispositioned lower. However, another scenario is a period of consolidation above the Fib level.

CHF/JPY Daily Chart

Technical Sentiment for AUD/JPY: Positive

After prices rose by about 2% on Friday, the AUD/JPY exchange rate posted its third weekly gain. Prices briefly moved outside a two standard deviation width, which typically covers around 95% of price activity, according to a Linear Regression Channel from the late 2021 swing bottom. For speculators, a move outside the channel represents a buy signal, with the expectation that prices will retrace toward the regression line. Consequently, there should be more room for AUD/JPY to rise.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart

Technical – Pivots – Weekly